Athletico have the strongest home record in Serie A this season: 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 11 at home, and they arrive on a home run of W D D W W. Overall they sit third on 40 points from 22 games.

They have conceded just 6 goals in 11 home matches, roughly half a goal per game. That is the number this pick rests on, because a side that rarely concedes at home rarely loses at home.

RB Bragantino are respectable rather than dangerous on the road: 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 away, with 10 scored and 11 conceded. They come in off a mixed away run of L W L W D and sit eighth.

Athletico have avoided defeat in 10 of 11 home games, a raw 91 percent. We have priced this at 82 to allow for the sample size and for Bragantino being a mid-table away side rather than a poor one. Double chance means the draw still pays.