Fluminense have lost once in 11 at home this season, 7 wins and 3 draws alongside it. Palmeiras top the table and carry the best away record in the division, also 7 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat from 11 on the road.

Fluminense home games have averaged 2.64 goals this season, 18 scored and 11 conceded across 11 matches. Palmeiras away games have averaged exactly the same 2.64, with 21 scored and 8 conceded in 11. Two independent splits landing on the same number is the reason we like the goals line here.

Both double chances price at roughly 91 percent, which is the data saying a draw is very much live. Fluminense have also drawn each of their last five in all competitions. When neither side wants to lose, the result market is the wrong place to be.

This is a top of the table fixture and those can tighten up. Over 1.5 rather than 2.5 is deliberate: it needs only two goals across ninety minutes from two sides averaging well above that.