Sirius top Allsvenskan on 42 points and have not lost a league match this season: 13 wins, 3 draws and no defeats from 16, with a goal difference of plus 25. They arrive on W W W W D.

This is the number the pick rests on. Sirius have the best away record in the division: 7 wins, 1 draw and no defeats from 8, scoring 21 and conceding 8. Their last five away matches are five straight wins.

Mjällby sit 13th and are weak at home, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from 7. They have scored just 6 goals at home all season, and their recent home form reads W L L D L.

Sirius are unbeaten in 16, a raw 100 percent, which is exactly why we are not publishing it as one. No side stays unbeaten, so we have priced this at 88 to allow for regression and the small away sample. Double chance means the draw still pays.

Sirius away games average 3.63 goals, which looks tempting, but Mjällby home games average only 1.71. Two contradictory splits is a reason to stay away from the total, not to guess at it.